The biggest danger comes from China. If the Chinese economy weakens so much that the authorities have no other choice than to let the renminbi slide, it will have severe knock-on effect.

China accounted for 85 per cent of global growth in 2012, 54 per cent in 2013, and 30 per cent in 2014 — that figure is expected to fall to 24 per cent this year. “If there is only one statistic that you need to know in the world right now, this is it.”